Tendensi Forward Looking Behavior Dalam Kredibilitas Bank Indonesia

Juwita PR Suwondo, Dewi Kusumowati, Fatima Abdullah

Abstract


Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menyelidiki perilaku kebijakan moneter di Indonesia,melalui variabel kredibilitas Bank Indonesia. Penelitian ini dilakukan di Bank Sentral Indonesiakarena data sekunder diambil dari Bank Sentral Indonesia, dengan sebagian diperoleh dari BiroPusat Statistik (BPS), dan World Economic Outlook IMF (Dana Moneter Internasional). Datayang dikumpulkan dalam penelitian ini adalah sekunder, yang diterbitkan secara resmi oleh BankSentral Indonesia, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF), dan Biro Pusat Statistik (BPS), dari 2007hingga 2017. Metode estimasi Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) digunakan dalam penelitian ini.Model (baik inflasi dan persamaan kredibilitas) memberikan bukti yang menunjukkan bahwamemang ada tendensi sifat forward looking pada kebijakan moneter di Indonesia, dilihat darikredibilitas bank Indonesia yang terproyeksi dari ekspektasi inflasi. Ini menunjukkan bahwaperilaku masyarakat Indonesia terhadap kebijakan moneter berdasarkan ekspektasi di masa depan,bukan di masa lalu (backward looking).

Keywords


Kredibilitas, Bank Indonesia, Forward Looking

Full Text:

PDF

References


Ascarya. 2012. Transmission Channel and Effectiveness of Dual Monetary Policy in Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking.

Basu, Kaushik. 2011. Understanding Inflation and Controlling It. Department of Economics, Cornell University.

Blinder, Alan S. 1999. Central Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It? National Bureau Economic Research Working Paper Series. No. 7161.

Bradley, Michael D, et al. 2013. How Well Does “Core” Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes. Centre For Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. Vol. 26.

Candrasekhar, C. P. 2013. Not A Benign Market: An Analysis of Food Price and Volatility. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 2, No. 121.

Christiano, Lawrence J, et al. 2005. Nominal Rigidities and The Dynamic Effects of A Shock to Monetary Policy. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 113, No. 1.

Davis, J. Scott. 2012. The Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Underlying Inflation: The Role of Central Bank Credibility. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper, No. 134.

Doroftei, Irina Madalina and Christian Paun. 2013. Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence in a Former Communist Country; Curious Evolution in Romania. Journal of Eastern Europe Research in Business and Economics.

Dufour, Jean-Marie and Marcel G. Dagenais. 1983. Durbin-Watson Tests For Serial Correlation Regression With Missing Observations. Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 27.

Espinoza, Raphael A dan Dimitrios P. Tsomocos. 2013. Monetary Transaction Costs and The Term Premium. IMF Working Paper. (no 85).

Forder, James. 2004. Credibility in Context: Do Central Bankers and Economists Interpret The Term Differently. Econ Journal Watch. Vol. 1, No. 3.

Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. 1997. Central Bank Independence and Inflation Targeting: Monetary Policy Paradigms For The Next Millennium. New England Economic Review.

Gali, Jordi and Mark Gertler. 2000. Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometrics Analysis. National Bureau Economic Research. Vol. 7551.

Gali, Jordi. 2001. New Perspective on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and The Business Cycle. Centre for Applied Economics.

Greene, W. 2003. Econometric Analysis. Prentice Hall. New York.

Hakim, Rachman, et al. 2013. Kredibilitas Bank Sentral dan Persistensi Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan, Vol. 17, No. 2.

Henckel, Timo, et al. 2013. The Great Recession and The Two Dimensions of European Central Bank Credibility. Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. Vol. 55.

Herawati, Vica. 2010. Analisis Pengaruh Asean China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) Terhadap Kinerja Keuangan Yang Dilihat Dari Penjualan Pada UKM Tekstil di Pekalongan. Thesis Diponegoro University.

Jonaidi, Arius. 2012. AnalisisPertumbuhanEkonomi dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi. Vol 1, No. 1.

Kydland, Finn E and Edward C. Prescott. 1982. Time To Build And Aggregate Fluctuations. Econometrica. Vol. 50, No. 6.

Labonte, Marc. 2011. Inflation: Causes, Costs, and Current Status. Congressional Research Service, Vol. 7.

Lan, Hong and Alexander Meyer-Gohde. 2013. Pruning in Perturbation DSGE Models: Guidance From Non-Linear Moving Average Approximation. SFB 649 Discussion Paper. No. 24.

Linde, Andrei. 2005. Inflation and String Cosmology. Stanford University.

Lindner, Isabella dan Gabriela Mihailovici. 2013. Understanding Central Banks’ Role in Enlargement-Governance Issues. FEEI Q1, No. 13.

Martin, Fernando M. 2013. Debt, Inflation, and Central Bank Independence. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series. Vol 17 A.

Maslowska, Aleksandra. 2012. Studies in Institutions and Central Bank Independence. Turku School of Economics: Turku.

Neuenkirch, Matthias dan Peter Tillmann. 2012. Inflation Targeting, Credibility, and Non-Linear Taylor Rules. Joint Discussion Paper in Economics, No. 35.

Parkin, Michael. 2013. The Effects of Central Bank Independence And Inflation Targeting on Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence From Natural Experiments. Economic Policy Research Institute Working Paper Series. Vol 3.

Stark, Tom. 2010. Realistic Evaluation of Real Time Forecasts In The Survey of Professional Forecasters. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Stock, James H and Mark W. Watson. 2007. Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder To Forecast. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Vol. 39, No. 1.

Tanaka, Atsushi. 2013. Central Bank Financial Strength and Credibility: A Simple Dynamic Optimization Model. Kwansei Gakuin University Discussion Paper Series. Vol. 102.

Taylor, John B. 1993. Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. Vol. 39.

Ueda, Kenichi dan Fabian Valencia. 2012. Central Bank Independence and Macro-prudential Regulation. IMF Working Paper, No. 101.

Umoh, et al. 2012. Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Analysis of The Endogenous Effects. Current Research Journal of Economics Theory. Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 53-66.

Waluyo, Jati, et al. 2011. Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Credibility. Bulletin of Monetary, Economics, and Banking.

Yusida, Ermita. 2013. Dampak Penerapan ASEAN China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) Terhadap Keberlangsungan Industri Kecil Menengah (IKM) Dilihat Dari Perspektif Varian Produk IKM di Jawa Timur. University of Brawijaya.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.26905/jrei.v1i2.5436

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Journal of Regional Economics Indonesia has been indexing:



Journal of Regional Economics Indonesia has been tools:






Journal of Regional Economics Indonesia

Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Merdeka Malang

MAILING ADDRESS
Terusan Dieng Street 62-64, Sukun, Malang City, East Java, 65146, Indonesia
Phone: 081331350416
Email: jrei@unmer.ac.id


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.