Volatility Spillover Among Asian Developed Stock Markets to Indonesia Stock Market During Pandemic Covid-19

Yunia Panjaitan, Rizky Novel

Abstract


This study aims to analyze the transmissions of volatility spillovers from China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan stock markets to the Indonesian stock market and prove an asymmetric effect on spillover volatility. The data retrieved from the stock index of each country in the period 2020. The analytical method used is the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) specification developed by Nelson (1991). The results of data analysis show that there was no spillover of volatility from the stock markets of China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan to the Indonesian stock market. The data analysis results also showed an asymmetric effect on the spillover of volatility from the stock markets of China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan to the Indonesian stock market.

 

DOI : https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v25i2.5532


Keywords


Asymmetric; EGARCH; Volatility Spillover.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International Asset Allocation with Regime Shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/15.4.1137

Black, F. (1976). Studies of Stock Price Volatility Changes: Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section. American Statistical Association,177- 191.

Boone, L., Haugh, D., Pain, N., & Salins, V. (2020). Tackling the fallout from COVID-19. Economics in the Time of COVID-19, 37.

Bodie, Z, Kane, A., & Marcus, A. (2017). Essentials Of Investments (10th ed). New York: McGraw-Hill Education.

Brooks, C. (2008). Introductory Econometrics for Finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Campbell, J. Y., & Hentschel, L. (1992). No news is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 31(3), 281-318. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(82)900186-6

Christie, A. A. (1982). The Stochastic Behavior of Common Stock Variances: Value, Leverage and Interest Rate Effects. Journal of financial Economics, 10(4), 407-432. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(92)90037-X

Das, S. R., & Uppal, R. (2004). Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice. The Journal of Finance, 59(6), 2809-2834. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00717.x

Drazen, A. (1998). Political Contagion in Currency Crisis. NBER Working Paper, 7211. https://www.nber.org/papers/w7211

Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E., & Lim, G. C. (2012). Principles of Econometrics (4th ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey.

Huang, C., et ell. (2020). Clinical Features of Patients Infected With 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 2020; 395: 497-506. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140- 6736(20)30183-5

Hull, J. (2012). Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Web Site (Vol. 733). John Wiley & Sons.

Jebran, K., Chen, S., Ullah, I., & Mirza, S. S. (2017). Does volatility spillover among stock markets varies from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from emerging markets of Asia. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 3(1-4), 20-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfds.2017.06.001

Joshi, P. (2011). Return and volatility spillovers among Asian stock markets. Sage Open, 1(1), 2158244011413474.

Khan, K., ZHAO, H., Zhang, H., Yang, H., Shah, M. H., & Jahanger, A. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets: An empirical analysis of world major stock indices. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 7(7), 463-474. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no7.463

Kibtiyah, M., Shintia Dewi, A., & Trikartika Gustyana, T. (2017). Analisis Spillover V olatilitas Pasar Saham Indonesia dan China. Majalah Ilmiah UNIKOM, 15. https://jurnal.unikom.ac.id/jurnal/analisis-spillover.6l

Koutmos, G. (1998). Asymmetries in The Conditional Mean And The Conditional Variance: Evidence from Nine Stock Markets. Journal of Economic and Business, 50(3), 277-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0148-6195(98)00004-6

Koutmos, G. & Booth, G. (1995). Asymmetries Volatility Transmission In International Stock Markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 14(6), 747-762. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(95)00031-3

Lestano, L., & Sucito, J. (2010). Spillover Volatilitas Pasar Saham Indonesia dan Singapura periode 2001-2005. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 12(1), 17-25. https://doi.org/10.9744/jak.12.1.pp.%2017-25

Lin, W. L., Engle, R. F., & Ito, T. (1994). Do Bulls and Bears Move Across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility. Review of financial studies, 7(3), 507-538. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/7.3.507

Martin, M., & Yunita, Y. (2010). Volatility Spillover pada Pasar Saham Indonesia, Cina, dan India. Binus Business Review, 1(1), 40-49. https://doi.org/10.21512/bbr.v1i1.1020

Masson, P. (1997). Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Contagion. Mimeograph, International Monetary Fund.

Masson, P. (1998). Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria. International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, 98/142, September.

Miyakohsi, T. (2003). Spillover of Stock Return Volatility to Asian Equity Market from Japan, USA. Journal of International Finance Market, Institutions and Money, 13(4), 383- 399. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1042-4431(03)00015-5

Mullainathan, S. (2002). A Memory-based Model Of Bounded Rationality. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(3), 735-774. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302760193887

Nam, K., Pyun, C.S., & Avard, S.L. (2001). Asymmetric Reverting Behavior of Short Horizon Stock Returns: An Evidence of Stock Market Overreaction. Journal of Banking and Finance, 25(4), 807-824. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(00)00110-2

Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity In Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 347-370. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938260

Panjaitan, Y., & Saadah, S. (2018). Volatility Spillover Analysis Post Implementation of AEC 2015 Agreement: Empirical Study on ASEAN-5 Stock Market. International Journal of Financial Research, 9(2), 105-111. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v9n2p105

Qolbi, N. (2020, November 02). Kepemilikan Investor Domestik Mendominasi Pasar Saham, Daya Tahan IHSG Lebih Kokoh. Investasi.kontan.co.id, March 08, 2021. https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/kepemilikan-investor-domestik- mendominasi-pasar-saham-daya-tahan-ihsg-lebih-kokoh

Saadah, S. (2013). Response Asymmetry in Spillover Volatility: An Empirical Study in the Indonesia and Singapore Stock Market. Indonesian Capital Market Review, 5(2). https://doi/org/10.21002/icmr.v5i2.1898

Sari, L. K., Achsani, N. A., & Sartono, B. (2017). The Volatility Transmission of Main Global Stock's Return to Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 20(2), 229-256. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v20i2.813

Sharma, S. S. (2020). A note on the Asian market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic. Asian Economics Letters, 1(2), 17661. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.17661

Tumbelaka, Indra. (2019). On Volatility Spillover in the Emerging Stock Market: Asymmetric Model for Indonesia. OJK Working Paper, WP/19/01, December.

Valdés, R. (1996). Emerging Market contagion: Evidence and Theory. MIT Mimeo.

Winarno, Wing Wahyu. (2015). Analisis Ekonometrika dan Statistika dengan EViews (edisi 4). UPP STIM YKPN: Yogyakarta.

Wren-Lewis, S. (2020). Tackling the fallout from COVID-19. Economics in the Time of COVID-19, 109. https://voxeu.org/content/economics-time-covid-19

Wu, R.S. (2005). International Transmission Effect Of Volatility Between The Financial Markets During The Asian Financial Crisis. Transition Studies Review, 12(1), 19-35. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11300-005-0032-5




DOI: https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v25i2.5532

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan (Journal of Finance and Banking)

Diploma Program of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Merdeka Malang

Published by University of Merdeka Malang

Mailing Address:
2nd floor Finance and Banking Building, Jl. Terusan Raya Dieng No. 57 Malang, East Java, Indonesia
Phone: -
Email: [email protected]

This work is licensed under a Creative
Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0