MEMPREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS DENGAN BINARY LOGIT REGRESSION PERUSAHAAN TELEKOMUNIKASI

Tiara Widya Antikasari, Djuminah Djuminah

Abstract


In this globalization era, sub-sector telecommunication industry has rapid development as time goes by with the number of customers’ growth. However, its growth is not balanced with operational revenue development. Therefore, it is important to analyze the financial distress in telecommunication companies in order to avoid bankruptcy. This research aimed to investigate the effect of financial ratios to predict the probability of financial distress. Financial ratios indicator used profitability ratio, liquidity ratio, activity ratio, and leverage ratio. The population in this research was telecommunication companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange periods 2009-2016. Based on purposive sampling method, the criteria of financial distress in this study was measured by using net operation negative two years, while statistic analysis used was logistic regression with a significance level of 10%. The result was that liquidity ratio (current ratio) and activity ratio (total asset turnover ratio) had a negative significant value, and profitability ratio(return on asset) and a leverage ratio (debt to total asset) had positive significant value to predict financial distress.

Keywords


activity ratio, binary logit regression, financial distress, leverage ratio, liquidity ratio, profitability ratio

References


Afriyeni, E. 2012. Model Prediksi Financial Distress Perusahaan. Polibisnis, 4(2):1-10.

Agrawal, K. & Maheshwari, Y. 2016. Predicting Financial Distress: Revisiting the Option Based Model, South Asian Journal of Global Business Research, 5(2):268-284.

Ahmad, G.N. 2013. Analysis of Financial Distress in Indonesian Stock Exchange. Review of Integrative Business and Economic Research, 2(2):521-533.

Al-khatib, H.B. & Horani, A.A. 2012.Predicting Financial Distress of Public Companies Listed in Amman Stock Exchange. European Scientific Journal, 8(15):1-17.

Almilia, L. S. & Kristijadi. 2003. Analisis Rasio Keuangan Untuk Memprediksi Kondisi Financial Distress Perusahaan Manufaktur yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Jakarta. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Auditing Indonesia (JAAI), 7(2):183-210.

Altman, E.I. 1968. Financial Ratio, Discriminant Analysis, and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4): 589-609.

Azwar. 2015. Model Prediksi Financial Distress dengan Binary Logit. Badan Pelatihan dan Pendidikan Keuangan, 8(1): 1-23.

Beaver, W. H., Correia, M., & McNichols, M.F. 2011. Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Financial Distress. Foundations and Trends in Accounting, 5(2): 99-173.

Brahmana, R.K. 2007. Identifying Financial Distress Condition in Indonesia Manufacture Industry.Birmingham Business School. University of Birmingham. United Kingdom.

Ghozali, I. 2006. Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate Lanjutan Dengan Program SPSS. Edisi 1. Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.

Giampaoli, V.,Tamura, K.A., Caro, N.P. & Araujo, L.J.S. 2016. Prediction of a Financial Crisis in Latin American Companies using the Mixed Logistic Regression Model, Chilean Journal of Statistics, 7(1):31-41.

Hapsari, E.I. 2012. Kekuatan Rasio Keuangan dalam Memprediksi Kondisi Financial Distress Perusahaan Manufaktur di BEI. Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen, 3(2):101-109.

Hidayat, M.A. & Meiranto, W. 2014. Prediksi Financial Distress Perusahaan Manufaktur di Indonesia. Diponegoro Journal of Accounting, 3(3):1-11.

Hill, N. T., Perry, S. E. & Andes, S.1996. Evaluating Firms in Financial Distress: An Event History Analysis. Journal of Applied Business Research 12(3): 60–71.

Irfan, M. &Yuniati, T. 2014. Analisis Financial Distress dengan Pendekatan Altman Z-Score untuk Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Telekomunikasi. Jurnal Ilmu & Riset Manajemen, 3(1): 1-18.

Kasmir. 2008. Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada.

Lawrence J.R., Pongsatat, S. & Lawrence, H. 2015. The Use of Ohlson's O-Score for Bankruptcy Prediction in Thailand. The Journal of Applied Business Research, 31(6): 2069-2078.

Nurfajrina, A., Siregar, H. & Saptono, I.T. 2016. Analisis Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Agribisnis di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 20(3):448-457.

Ohlson, J. A. 1980. Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1): 109-131.

Pasaribu, R.B.F. 2008. Penggunaan Binary Logit untuk Prediksi Financial Distress Emiten di BEI. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis & Akuntansi Ventura, 11(2):153-172.

Pervan, I., Pervan, M. & Vokuja, B.2011. Prediction of Company Bankruptcy using Statistical Techniques. Croatian Operational Research Review (CRORR), 2:158-167.

Putra, H. S. R. 2009. Manajemen Keuangan dan Akuntansi Untuk Eksekutif Perusahaan. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.

Riyanto, B. 2011.Dasar-Dasar Pembelanjaan Perusahaan.Edisi Keempat.Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Syamsuddin, L. 2004. Manajemen Keuangan Perusahaan. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo.

Widarjo, W. & Setyawan, D. 2009. Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan terhadap Kondisi Financial DistressPerusahaan Otomotif. Jurnal Bisnis dan Akuntansi, Vol. 11(2):107-119.

Widhiari, N.L.M.A. & Merkusiwati, N.K.L.A. 2015. Pengaruh Rasio Likuiditas, Leverage, Opertaing Capacity, dan Sales Growth terhadap Financial Distress. E- Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 11(2):456-469.

Whitaker, R.B. 1999. The Early Stages of Financial Distress. Journal of Economics and Finance, 23: 123–133.


Full Text: pdf

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




rsz_8th_ifma rsz_6th_perbanas_conference rsz_the_6th_indonesian_finance_association_international_conference


Journal of Finance and Banking

Diploma Program of Banking and Finance
Faculty of Economics and Business University of Merdeka Malang

Mailing Address:

2nd-floor Banking and  Finance Building, Terusan Raya Dieng Street No.57 Malang, 65146, East Java, Indonesia
Phone/WhatsApp: +628123321664; Fax. +62 341 580511
Email:
jkpunmermlg@yahoo.com


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.