Spillover Effect Normalisasi Kebijakan Moneter AS terhadap Indonesia
Abstract
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis Spillover Effect dari normalisasi kebijakan moneter America Serikat yaitu FFR (Federal Funds Rate) terhadap variabel makroekonomi Indonesia yaitu tingkat inflasi, neraca perdagangan, dan kurs. Penelitian ini dilakukan menggunakan data sekunder diambil dari Bank Sentral Indonesia, dengan sebagian diperoleh dari Biro Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Federal Reserve AS (The Fed) pada tahun 2010-2021. Metode estimasi yang digunakan adalah VAR (Vector Autoregression). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat efek sistemik kebijakan moneter kontraktif AS dalam program QT (Quantitative Tightening) terhadap tingkat inflasi, neraca perdagangan, dan kurs secara negatif. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, penelitian ini mengusulkan untuk melakukan mitigasi dampak normalisasi kebijakan moneter AS dengan monitoring IHK, melakukan koordinasi dengan negara lain terkait bilateral arrangement, dan penyesuaian pada 7DRRR dalam kaitannya dengan jalur moneter kredit.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.26905/jrei.v4i1.9944
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