Penerapan metode Single Exponential Smoothing untuk memprediksi permintaan labu darah

David Abyantara Sadana Putra, Rahmatina Hidayati

Abstract


The Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) Blood Transfusion Unit (UTD), which is tasked with meeting the need for blood bags in Malang City is experiencing several problems. One of them is that the supply of blood bags is less than the demand for blood. Based on administrative data, demand for blood gourds in PMI Malang City will increase in 2022 compared to 2021 and 2020. To overcome limited supplies, PMI needs to make estimates to anticipate a spike in demand for blood bags. This research aims to determine the future demand for blood bags, or what is called forecasting. One method of time series forecasting is Single Exponential Smoothing. The data used is the demand for blood bags in 2020-2022 at PMI Malang City. To measure the error level of the forecasting model, this research uses Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The best MAPE value of 7.75% was obtained at α=0.5. The MAPE value can be categorized as very good because it is less than 10%. And based on MAE measurements, the best value is also obtained at α=0.5.


Keywords


Indonesian Red Cross, Single Exponential Smoothing, blood bags

Full Text:

PDF

References


W. M. I. Muttaqin, W. Ramdhan and W. M. Kifti, "Sistem Peramalan Permintaan Darah dengan Metode Simple Moving," Edumatic: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 242-251, 2022.

K. Rizani, C. T. Purnami and D. , "Pengembangan Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Persediaan Darah di Unit Transfusi Darah Cabang PMI Kabupaten Banjar Kalimantan Selatan untuk Mendukung Perencanaan Persediaan Darah," Jurnal Manajemen Kesehatan Indonesia (JMKI), vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 108-113, 2015.

"Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Malang," [Online]. Available: https://malangkota.bps.go.id/.

S. N. Budiman, "Peramalan Stock Barang Dagangan Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing," Jurnal Teknologi and Manajemen Informatika (JTMI), vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 113-121, 2021.

M. A. Maricar, "Analisa Perbandingan Nilai Akurasi Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing ntuk Sistem Peramalan Pendapatan pada Perusahaan XYZ," Jurnal Sistem and Informastika (JSI), vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 36-45, 2019.

A. V. E. P. Putra, Y. A. Pranoto and S. A. Wibowo, "Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Meramal Penjualan Di Toko Agung (Studi Kasus Di Toko Agung Kalanganyar Kabupaten Malang)," JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika)), vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 1065-1071, 2022.

Risqiati, "Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Penjualan Benang," Smart Comp (Jurnalnya Orang Pintar Komputer), vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 154-159, 2021.

B. W. Yudanto and B. Hartanto, "Implementasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Melakukan Perkiraan Stok Barang di Toko Makanan Ringan Berbasis Sistem Informas," Journal of Economic, Management, Accounting and Technology (JEMATech), vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 188-199, 2022.

R. Yuniarti, "Analisa Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Sebagai Peramalan Penjualan Terhadap Penyalur Makanan (Studi Kasus : Lokatara Dimsum)," Aliansi Jurnal Manajemen & Bisnis, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 29-34, 2020.

N. A. Sudibyo, A. Iswardani, A. W. Septyanto and T. Ganang, "Prediksi Inflasi Di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing," Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika and Statistika, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 123-129, 2020.

H. Ihsan, R. Syam and F. Ahmad, "Peramalan Penjualan dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus : Penjualan Bakso Kemasaan/Kiloan Rumah Bakso Bang Ipul)," Journal of Mathematics, Computations, and Statistics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1-7, 2018.

M. D. B. Barus, Mustafa and F. S. Thahirah, "Single Eksponensial Smoothing: Analisis Forecasting dalam Perencanaan Produksi (Studi Kasus PT. Food Beverages Indonesia)," in Seminar of Social Sciences Engineering & Humaniora (SCENARIO), Medan, 2021.

N. Hudaningsih, S. F. Utami and W. A. A. Jabbar, "Perbandingan Peramalan Penjualan Produk Aknil PT. Sunthi Sepuri Mengguanakan Metode Single Moving Average and Single Exponential Smooting," Jurnal JINTEKS, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 15-22, 2020.

A. A. Suryanto and A. Muqtadir, "Penerapan Metode Mean Absolute Error (MEA) dalam Algoritma Regresi Linear Untuk Prediksi Produksi Padi," SAINTEKBU: Jurnal Sains and Teknologi, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 78-83, 2019.

D. Reskianto, M. A. Barata and Sahri, "Forecasting Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Meramalkan Penjualan Barang," JIP (, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 435-444, 2023.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.26905/jisad.v1i2.11101

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2023 Journal of Information System and Application Development

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Indexed by

width="150"

Index Copernicus International (ICI)

Tools

Turnitin

crossref

Mendeley

Department of Information System, Faculty of Information Technology

Published by Universitas Merdeka Malang

Address: Jalan Terusan Dieng No. 57-59 Klojen, Pisang Candi, Sukun, Malang City, East Java, Indonesia, 65146
Phone: (+62341) 566462
Email: [email protected]

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.